{"id":14408,"date":"2025-01-20T15:01:49","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T15:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/monday-report-7\/"},"modified":"2025-02-05T02:21:05","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T02:21:05","slug":"monday-report-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/monday-report-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Monday Report of 20 January 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/x494LnWLY_g?start=1&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The statistics published in the United States were generally positive. By rising less than expected (+0.2% m\/m vs. +0.3% m\/m est.; +3.2% y\/y vs. +3.3% est.), core inflation has reassured. SME confidence (NFIB index) rebounded more than expected in December (from 101.7 to 105.1 vs. 102.2 est.), as did homebuilder\u2019s confidence in January (from 46 to 47 vs. 45 est.), and industrial production in December (+0.9% m\/m vs. +0.3% est.). Only retail sales disappointed in the same month (+0.4% m\/m vs +0.6% est.). In the eurozone, the rise in industrial production in November (+0.2% m\/m and -1.9% y\/y) came as no surprise. In China, the economy finished 2024 well: GDP (+5.4% y\/y in Q4), industrial production (+6.2% y\/y vs. +5.4% est.) and retail sales (+3.7% y\/y vs. +3.6% est.) except for investments (+3.2% y\/y vs. +3.3% est.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Planetary Limits<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Federal Reserve has announced its withdrawal from the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4375\" style=\"object-fit:cover\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While awaiting the first decrees of the new US President, who takes office today, reassuring US inflation figures drove 10-year sovereign yields down last week (USD: -13bp; Ger: -6bp; Fra: -12bp; CHF: -7bp). Equities benefited (US: +3.0%; Europe: +2.4%; emerging markets: +1.2%). The dollar index fell very slightly (-0.2%), allowing gold to continue its advance (+0.9%). Oil prices rose by a further 2.8%. Coming up this week: manufacturing and services PMI and existing home sales in the United States; manufacturing and services PMI and household confidence in the eurozone; 1- and 5-year loan rates in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swiss Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming up this week: the December and 2024 production-import price indices (FSO). The WEF begins today and will be held in Davos until Friday. The following companies are due to release sales figures and\/or orders for 2024: Belimo, DocMorris, Komax, Barry Callebaut, Schlatter, Galenica, Huber+Suhner, Autoneum, Givaudan, SFS, BB Biotech, Mikron and Hilti.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4383\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AIRBUS<\/strong>&nbsp;(Satellite) is included in our Satellite recommendation. Provided that supply chains and engine manufacturers function properly, deliveries will grow strongly between now and 2028, leading to a sharp rise in earnings that is not fully reflected in the stock price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ASSA ABLOY<\/strong>&nbsp;(Core Holdings) has announced the dual acquisition of the American companies 3millID Corporation and Third Millennium Systems Ltd, founded in 1996 and 2015 respectively and specializing in access control in the US and the UK. The annual sales acquired amount to c. SEK 220 million, or 0.15% of group sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are adding&nbsp;<strong>MICRON<\/strong>&nbsp;to our list of Satellite. The group is capitalizing on the rise of HBM in datacenters, positioning it as a key player in the memory market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are adding&nbsp;<strong>NVIDIA<\/strong>&nbsp;to our Core Holdings list. Growth in datacenters will be driven by big tech capex in 2025, when Nvidia will reinforce its near-monopoly with the Blackwell arrival in mass production. At the same time, the group is extending its horizons by capturing opportunities in emerging markets, notably robotics and services, thereby reinforcing its strategic diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SHELL<\/strong>&nbsp;is included in our Satellite recommendation. The group, which is focused on controlling its costs and investments, offers the most reliable profile in terms of return to shareholders, thanks to its high free cash flow generation over the next two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bonds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, rates began a sharp decline (10Y -13bp), buoyed by a risk-on market (USD HY spread -13bp) on lower-than-expected inflation (PPI +0.2% m\/m vs. +0.4% expected, core +0.0% vs. +0.3% expected) and a relatively favorable growth environment. Rate cut expectations now include 1.5 rate cuts, compared with just one the previous week. This trend has spread to Europe (Bund 10Y -6bp, OAT 10Y -12bp). This week, with few macro publications, all eyes will be on Donald Trump&rsquo;s inauguration and his first executive decrees.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4388\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment of traders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a week marked by excellent results from US banks, everyone\u2019s eyes are riveted on the arrival of Trump in the White House, who has promised to sign a number of decrees quickly. We will have results from Netflix, J&amp;J, GE, PG, Givaudan and Ericsson, and on the macro front, the Leading index and US housing sales, ZEW and eurozone PMIs. A chaotic week ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Currencies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forex market is starting the week peacefully, with the dollar consolidating against the major currencies: \u20ac\/$ 1.0310, $\/CHF 0.9132, $\/JPY 156.15. Forex traders are focused today on Trump\u2019s inauguration, with the many presidential decrees expected and statements on tariffs likely to lead to high volatility and support the dollar. Despite a slight rebound, the \u00a3 remains under pressure \u00a3\/$ 1.2200.Gold peaks at $2704\/oz, sup. 2680 res. 2760. Our ranges: \u20ac\/$ 1.0180-1.0440, $\/CHF 0.8980-0.9190, \u20ac\/CHF 0.9330-0.9450.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s graph<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1056\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/graphPourSite-3.jpg\" alt=\"US headline vs core CPI trends 2023-2024 chart.\" class=\"wp-image-15444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/graphPourSite-3.jpg 1056w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/graphPourSite-3-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/graphPourSite-3-1024x729.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/graphPourSite-3-768x547.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1056px) 100vw, 1056px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Performances<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"478\" height=\"304\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/perfANG-pour-site-2.jpg\" alt=\"Financial market data table with statistics and percentages.\" class=\"wp-image-15448\" style=\"width:823px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/perfANG-pour-site-2.jpg 478w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/perfANG-pour-site-2-300x191.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 478px) 100vw, 478px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to \u201cUS persons\u201d as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website \u2013 including the present document \u2013 is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Read the latest weekly report on the financial sectors and financial market, by Bordier Switzerland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[132],"news_country":[13],"news_language":[38],"class_list":["post-14408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-monday-report","news_country-switzerland","news_language-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14408"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16009,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14408\/revisions\/16009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14408"},{"taxonomy":"news_country","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_country?post=14408"},{"taxonomy":"news_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_language?post=14408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}