{"id":16813,"date":"2025-02-03T15:50:36","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T15:50:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/?p=16813"},"modified":"2025-02-10T09:44:54","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T09:44:54","slug":"monday-report-en-250203","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/monday-report-en-250203\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Monday Report 3 February 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/udDvPCqCzas?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The statistics published in the United States were satisfactory. Penalized by transports, durable goods orders contracted by 2.2% m\/m in December (+0.3% excluding transport). Household confidence fell more than expected, from 109.5 to 104.1 in January, but their spending rose more strongly than expected in December (+0.7% m\/m vs. +0.5% est.). GDP growth in Q4 turned out to be weaker than expected (+2.3% q\/q annualized vs. +2.6% est.), but consumption is reassuring (+4.2% vs. +3.2% est.) and PCE inflation is in line (+0.3% m\/m; +2.6% y\/y). In the eurozone, Q4 GDP growth disappointed slightly (0% q\/q vs. +0.1% est.), but the EC confidence indices surprised positively in January (economy: from 93.7 to 95.2 vs. 94.1 est.; industry: from -14.1 to -12.9 vs. -13.8 est.; services: from 5.7 to 6.6 vs. 6.1 est.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Planetary Limits<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>China has accounted for more than half of the growth in oil demand since the turn of the century. But the country is undergoing a revolution in the automotive sector, with 11 million electric vehicles sold in China by 2024, representing over 60% of global sales totalizing 17.1 million units.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4375\" style=\"object-fit:cover\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As expected by the markets, the ECB cut its key rates by 0.25% and the Fed kept its rates unchanged. Sovereign 10-year yields fell (USD &amp; CHF: -8bp; EUR: ~-10bp), with equities benefiting in Europe (+1.8%) and Switzerland (+2.5%) but not in the US (-1%). The dollar&rsquo;s appreciation (dollar index: +0.9%), resulting from monetary policy divergences, is not penalizing gold (+1.3%). Coming up this week: ISM manufacturing and services, employment report and household confidence (Univ. of Michigan) in the United States; consumer and producer price indices and retail sales in the eurozone; manufacturing and services PMI, consumer and producer price indices in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swiss Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming up this week: Q4 house price index (FSO), Q1 employment barometer (KOF), January PMI indices, business survey (KOF), January unemployment (Seco) and end-January currency reserves (SNB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following companies are due to release figures: Julius B\u00e4r, UBS, Medacta, Valiant, D\u00e4twyler, Financi\u00e8re Tradition, Leonteq, SPS, Ems-Chemie, Lem, Vontobel and ZKB. Finally, Bioversys will be listed on the Swiss stock exchange.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4383\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABBVIE<\/strong> (Core Holdings) has published good Q4 results and reassured the market about its 2025 target, with EPS expected at $12.12-12.32, in line with expectations. The market had feared a more conservative figure. The company is beginning to emerge from the impact of Humira&rsquo;s patent expiry and will benefit from the ramp-up of recent launches, with sales and EPS that we expect to be +7% and +11%\/year over 2024-27, offering rare visibility within the sector between now and the end of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DUKE ENERGY<\/strong> (Satellite) has announced that it has joined a public-private coalition seeking an $800 million federal grant to build its first nuclear \u00ab\u00a0small modular reactor\u00a0\u00bb (SMR) in Tennessee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the publication of <strong>MICROSOFT<\/strong>&lsquo;s results, with Azure up 31% y\/y, attention is now turning to <strong>ALPHABET<\/strong> and <strong>AMAZON<\/strong> (Core Holdings), which will publish their results this week. The consensus forecast is for Google Cloud to grow by +32.6% and AWS by +19.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC<\/strong> has been removed from the Satellite list of recommendations. Deepseek&rsquo;s breakthrough represents a risk for investment in electrical equipment in datacenters, which is difficult to quantify at this stage. Schneider is exposed to this risk, with more than half of its sales growth coming from this segment. Given the stock&rsquo;s valuation (NTM PE of 24.8x), we consider the risk reward profile to be negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bonds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, the Fed unsurprisingly left rates unchanged last week, while Q4 GDP was below expectations, and the 10Y ended the week down 8bp. The ECB cut rates by 25bp and the 10Y OAT ended the week down 8bp, while the 10Y Bund lost 11bp. This week, the tariffs announced over the weekend by the US administration, as well as the budget vote in France and developments in the German election campaign, will be the focus of attention and are likely to be a source of volatility.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4388\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment of traders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By introducing tariffs, Trump sent equity markets tumbling (Japan -2.6%, Europe -2% on average). US indices were not spared, with futures well into the red. The ISM and employment figures are likely to go unnoticed, as are the quarterly results of Palantir, BNP, UBS and Pfizer amid the political hubbub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Currencies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Threats of a US trade war became reality over the weekend, with the CAD and MXN falling sharply to $\/CAD 1.4682 and $\/MXN 21.08. With Europe Trump&rsquo;s next target, the \u20ac\/$ has already plunged to 1.0140 before rising this morning to \u20ac\/$ 1.0240. We remain bullish on the $ in the short term. Risk aversion is supporting the CHF, which is strengthening to \u20ac\/CHF 0.9387 sup. 0.9300 res. 0.9450. Gold is soaring to $2790\/oz, sup. 2740 res. 2804. Our ranges: \u20ac\/$ 1.0100-1.0365, $\/CHF 0.9100-0.9210, \u00a3\/$ 1.2240-1.2470.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s graph<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img alt=\"US GDP growth contributions by sector, 2023-2024.\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"647\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/today-graph.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16818\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/today-graph.png 1054w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/today-graph-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/today-graph-1024x629.png 1024w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/today-graph-768x471.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1054px) 100vw, 1054px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Performances<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img alt=\"Financial market data as of January 31, 2025.\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1069\" height=\"647\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/performances.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16814\" style=\"width:823px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/performances.png 1069w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/performances-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/performances-1024x620.png 1024w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/performances-768x465.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1069px) 100vw, 1069px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to \u201cUS persons\u201d as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website \u2013 including the present document \u2013 is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Read the latest weekly report on the financial sectors and financial market, by Bordier Switzerland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[132],"news_country":[13],"news_language":[38],"class_list":["post-16813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-monday-report","news_country-switzerland","news_language-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16813"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16978,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16813\/revisions\/16978"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16813"},{"taxonomy":"news_country","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_country?post=16813"},{"taxonomy":"news_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_language?post=16813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}