{"id":17358,"date":"2025-03-03T15:35:34","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T15:35:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/?p=17358"},"modified":"2025-03-03T15:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T15:46:54","slug":"monday-report-en-03032025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/monday-report-en-03032025\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Monday Report of 3 March 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JQyayyXiSp4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The statistics published in the United States tended to disappoint. Household confidence fell from 105.3 to 98.3, more than expected (102.5) in February. Similarly, new home sales contracted by 10.5% m\/m in January (vs -2.6% est.). While household incomes rose more than expected in January (+0.9% m\/m), household spending unexpectedly fell (-0.2% m\/m). PCE inflation was in line with expectations (+0.3% m\/m; +2.5% y\/y). The rise in durable goods orders was stronger than expected in January (+3.1% m\/m vs +2% est.). In the eurozone, the EC confidence indices are satisfactory: confidence in the economy has risen from 95.3 to 96.3, confidence in industry from -12.9 to -11.4 and confidence in services has fallen slightly from 6.7 to 6.2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Planetary Boundaries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>According to a study by the British Met Office (government agency for meteorology and climate) and the University of Exeter published in the journal Nature, the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), the main circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean, which plays a decisive role in regulating the climate, is not expected to collapse this century. On the other hand, it is \u00ab\u00a0very likely to weaken, which will pose climate problems for Europe and beyond\u00a0\u00bb, according to the study leader.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4375\" style=\"object-fit:cover\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic disappointments in the US and geopolitical tensions pushed 10-year yields sharply lower, particularly in USD (-22bp; EUR: -7bp; CHF: -13bp). Despite these movements, the dollar appreciated by 1.2% (dollar index), reflecting a degree of risk aversion, also visible in the US equities underperformance (-1.1%; Europe: +0.6%; emerging markets: -4.4%). Gold (-2.7%) seems to be the victim of profit-taking after the sharp rise of recent weeks. Coming up this week: ISM manufacturing and services, employment report and consumer credit in the US; consumer and producer price indices, unemployment rate, ECB meeting and retail sales in the eurozone; manufacturing and services PMIs (Caixin and official), foreign exchange reserves and trade balance in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swiss Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming up this week: SNB final results for 2024, benchmark mortgage rate (OFL), PMI index for February 2025, consumer prices for February 2025 (FSO), unemployment for February 2025 (Seco) and foreign exchange reserves for February 2025 (SNB). The following companies are due to release results: Aryzta, Gurit, Forbo, VAT, K\u00fchne+Nagel, Arbonia, Lindt&amp;Spr\u00fcngli, On Holding, Orior, Sandoz, Comet, Kardex, Galderma, Geberit, Helvetia, Molecular Partners, Coltene, SFS, Flughafen Z\u00fcrich and Mikron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4383\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ING GROUP<\/strong> (Satellite): the group has announced the acquisition of a 17.6% stake in the private bank Van Lanschot. This shareholding is welcome as it increases the Group&rsquo;s stake in stable and highly profitable activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SIG GROUP<\/strong>: we are removing SIG from the Swiss Convictions list. Management is embroiled in governance problems with its main shareholder, which is not helping market confidence, which has already been damaged. It&rsquo;s a shame, because fundamentally the company is doing quite well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SOCIETE GENERALE<\/strong> (Satellite): Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale is included in our banking recommendations. Thanks to a new management team, the group has embarked on a strategic repositioning whose results in terms of profitability and return to shareholders have already begun to be seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>VOLKSWAGEN<\/strong> joins our Satellite recommendation on a speculative basis. The group is exposed to the risks of US tariffs and EU \u00ab\u00a0CO2\u00a0\u00bb fines in 2025, but the valuation is depressed and the restructuring announced in December, the EU Action Plan for the auto industry and the arrival in office of a \u00ab\u00a0pro-business\u00a0\u00bb coalition in Germany are all support factors that have little or no market integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bonds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, the 10Y lost 22bp on last week&rsquo;s disappointing macro figures, with jobless claims higher than expected, building permits down m\/m, and the Atlanta Fed&rsquo;s GDPNow pointing to a 1.5% contraction in GDP. In Europe, the OAT and the Bund lost 7bp, boosted by a lower-than-expected CPI in France and the election results in Germany. This week, all eyes will be on the US NFP figures on Friday to see whether or not the trend is confirmed.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4388\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment of traders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a complicated week, especially in the US, the markets opened in the green this morning. In addition to geopolitical dithering, we will have ISM, durable goods orders and employment statistics in the US, while in the eurozone, unemployment, CPI and PPI will be published. Volatility is unlikely to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Currencies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a market focused on geopolitics, the euro weakens slightly to \u20ac\/$ 1.0395 sup. 1.0300 res. 1.0510, with the confrontation between D.Trump and V.Zelensky weighing on the single currency. The ECB meets this week, and the market is expecting a 0.25% cut. Forex traders will be focusing on US and European employment figures. The CHF is strengthening against this tense backdrop to \u20ac\/CHF 0.9370, sup. 0.9330 res. 0.9455. The ounce of gold is trading at $2863\/Oz, sup. 2832 res. 2900.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s graph<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1262\" height=\"942\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/graphPourSite-1.jpg\" alt=\"US consumer confidence chart 2015-2025 trends.\" class=\"wp-image-17359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/graphPourSite-1.jpg 1262w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/graphPourSite-1-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/graphPourSite-1-1024x764.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/graphPourSite-1-768x573.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1262px) 100vw, 1262px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Performances<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"673\" height=\"431\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/perfANG-pour-site.jpg\" alt=\"Financial data table for stock indices and commodities.\" class=\"wp-image-17361\" style=\"width:823px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/perfANG-pour-site.jpg 673w, https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/perfANG-pour-site-300x192.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 673px) 100vw, 673px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to \u201cUS persons\u201d as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website \u2013 including the present document \u2013 is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Read the latest weekly report on the financial sectors and financial market, by Bordier Switzerland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":15629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[132],"news_country":[13],"news_language":[38],"class_list":["post-17358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-monday-report","news_country-switzerland","news_language-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17358"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17366,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17358\/revisions\/17366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17358"},{"taxonomy":"news_country","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_country?post=17358"},{"taxonomy":"news_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_language?post=17358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}